Design Strategy, Innovation and other cranial jetsam
“ It’s probably worth trying to summarise the method in a couple of lines. The first horizon is the dominant present, which frames our current thinking about a domain. (In electricity supply, for example, think of centralised generation based on fossil fuels). It will decline in influence as the external environment changes. The third horizon is a possible future which may become dominant over time; in the electricity supply example, one such future is a distributed network powered by renewable energy sources. There are clues already as to what these competing futures might look like, but they are marginal and often marginalised. In between, there is the second horizon. This is a space in which the current horizon – where the power, the influence, and the money, along with connections, relationships and prestige are to be found – adapts to signals about the future: sometimes incrementally, sometimes disruptively, sometimes destructively. ”
